At a time when my personal investments are the last things that I want to think about, I think it’s critical to make sure that I am positioned well for a recovery. Trillions of dollars and other currencies are pumped out by governments into our economies around the world, companies trimming down costs and they are going trough restructuring cost cuts, exactly the same as it was last time when we were in trouble, companies letting people go like crazy, mortgage rates are finally dropping, they are at around 5%, it’s a great time to invest I think. Problem that I can see is not to many people are confident with investing, people got burned so many times, I can say that from the bottom of my heart, but now, if you do not invest in such time you will eventually miss the opportunity. Rich people, they invest and they make killing, so many people made millions on recent bounce, Citi bank was for less than a $1, few days later it was over $3, that’s 300% profit gain, to bad I cannot invest in banks and other such institutions what are being bailed out, if government made such position of not letting those institutions to go under there is slight chance that they would fail, you can still lose money on investment in such shady institutions but risk is much smaller compared to Enron or MCI collapses in my opinion.
Anyway usually in times like this, I do not have money to invest and I always miss on opportunity, which sucks, and I do believe a lot of people are like me. Not only that, if you do not have a job last thing on your mind is investing, which is so wrong, but then yet again, investing is like gambling so I am not saying you should do it, playing safe it’s always a good bet, but then again, the riskier it gets the most rewards you can get at the same time.
Before stocks started to go down in 2007 I did make around 50% of my 401k into cash, so when stocks were failing I was able to lose not that much money as otherwise, now when S&P is around 60% lower since its peek I do believe its time to rethink my investment a bit, so few days ago I did take 15% of my cash and I did reallocate it towards other funds that lost lots of money, I don’t know if I did the right thing but I did allocate more to investments that lost more money and fewer dollar amounts to investments that did not lose that much. I did not want to risk too much because I heard different people saying it can go down even further, so I just wanted to play safe. For next few weeks I do believe market will go slightly higher, but then it might still go down, but eventually it will rebound and companies will start reporting profits. What’s kind of bad is that wall street always compares last year’s quarter to this quarter results, they do not compare that much year after year, so of course after you have low interest rates, banks lending money, banks making profits again, companies restructured and finally starting to turn around, all of a sudden there is uptrend. Banks like a Citi bank already said they made billions this year, so is it a recovery time? A lot of politicians FED chairmen said we will rebound in 2009, and hey, I think it might happen, all we need is for companies’ say we making profits and our quarter is better than last year’s one.
One last comment that I wanted to make is the fact that investing on a regular basis is a great thing; 401K is best example of it. I used to invest trough my companies that I did work in the past with, they were taking money out of my paycheck every time I got one, over time it did accumulate. Make sure you invest at minimum what company is matching, this way you getting 100% return on your money, even if they matching like 50-80%, it’s worth it, that’s all free money for you. Then when you invest every month, every paycheck, you just keep buying funds/stocks or whatever, at high and low prices, but over time you are the winner. I am not a day trader, I cannot buy and sell stocks daily, so I am looking for long time investment, and that is great opportunity to do that. Over all with all the investments in my 401k plan, with all the interest, dividends and other returns which were reinvested, I am way ahead of what I would have otherwise. I believe this is great investment if you asked me. So over a year ago I did open an account at vanguard for my son, and I do put on a regular basis monthly few dollars to his funds, right now after all this market collapse I am actually below what I did put in into this investment but I am very confident that this will eventually start paying off. That’s exactly what happened in 2000 when I started to work at Sotheby’s, stock market was at its peak, everything was so expensive, so when I started to put money into 401k there I did see investment shrinking like there is no tomorrow, but eventually it did rebound and I did end up with much more than what I did put in. It’s worth to invest this way rather than just play market like a day trader.
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